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What will Alberta be like in 2010 for Real Estate?

Editor’s Note: There’s been a lot of news lately since BMO declared "Canada’s six-year housing market boom is officially over".  Today’s guest post is from Thomas Beyer, the President of Prestigious Properties Group and a REIN member. He originally posted this on the myREINspace forums and kindly consented to share his vision. Here it is, as well as some of the comments from the ensuing discussion. Enjoy!


 Spring 2010: What does Alberta look like?The Block Building On Jasper Ave in Edmonton

  • The Olympics are over .. and BC and Canada had fantastic TV coverage!

  • RV rentals from Calgary to Vancouver and vice versa are THROUGH THE ROOF .. and people driving say: "WOW .. what a great place to live .. so much space .. clean air .. decent prices .. mountains, beaches, oceans, lakes, hiking, skiing .. JOBS .. low unemployment .. no violence or racism or suicide bombers .."

  • BC based construction worker wonder "where next" .. as many BC based projects are finished .. and, ooh: Alberta and SK have jobs .. let’s go "back East" to AB and SK where the jobs are ..(and we can afford a house)

  • Oil @ $150/barrel

  • Royalty Review? .. what’s that ?

  • House prices in Calgary and Edmonton had flattened from 2007 to 2009 due to flattish or low in-migration and start to rise again … quite a bit actually.

  • The Canadian $ and US $ are at par .. more or less .. and prices in AZ, FL, HI, GA, TX, start to rise again too ..

  • Our banking system is in good shape .. and loans are more plentiful albeit not below 5% .. more like 6%’ish for a decent LTV loan ..A young alberta investor?

  • You (and Thomas and Don and Chris…) are 2 years older and have slightly more grey hair ..

  • The TSX is over 16,000

  • Unemployment in the West is still much lower than in Central Canada

  • The new Liberal leader is wondering if he should support yet another minority conservative budget or just abstain .. again ..

  • The new Encana building at over 62 stories opens in Calgary .. the tallest tower west of Toronto .. more spotlights on AB

  • It is still raining in Prince Rupert .. and the newly hired 12 port terminal employees are wondering .. where is Prince Rupert’s boom ?

  • Over 40,000 new immigrants have moved to Alberta to fill many vacant jobs as nurses, welders, service industry jobs.

  • Average 2 bedroom is well over $1100 in Edmonton .. $1300 in Calgary .. still lower than Vancouver or Toronto though .. with room to rise.

And from the other discussion on REINspace….

  • The pine beetle has taken a serious bite out of the forestry industry in BC. The goverment will start to increase taxes to replace the stumpage while loggers will be starting to move to AB to work in the oilsands or other high paid jobs.

  • The north leg of the Anthony Henday will be completed in Edmonton and several new developments in Fort Saskatchewan will be taking off. They’ll be well underway on the Western Regional bypass, bringing more people to St. Albert, Morinville, and thus to Legal, Redwater, and more of the industrial heartland!

Thomas Beyer, President of Prestigious Properties Group, a REIN member and a Real Estate Investor.As always there are 3 groups: those that make things happen, those that watch things happen, and those that wonder "what just happened" . What are your thoughts on spring 2010, 2 years from now?
 

Yours Sincerely,

Thomas Beyer,

Diamond REIN member and also
President, Prestigious Properties Group
T: 403-678-3330
E: tbeyer @ prestprop.com
W: www.prestprop.com

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    { 8 comments… add one }
    • Fl Real Estate July 25, 2008, 8:06 am

      Buddy , I agree with this article, just sometimes I read so fast everything and I miss things that after read them again, I can understand it better.. ;). Your ll Alberta be like in 2010 for Real Estate? | Chris Davies Blog Stumbled up and Bookmarked, so I keep updated on every article you write from now now on fl real estate.

    • Stuart April 25, 2009, 10:20 pm

      Interesting predictions. Although I think you might want to revise a few things, such as $150+ oil and a 16,000+ TSX.

    • Thomas Beyer April 26, 2009, 1:37 pm

      indeed .. this was written a year ago .. so yes $150 oil and 16,000 TSX was a tad optimistic and did NOT take into consideration the huge stock market drop in the fall of 2008 !!

      so let’s use $60 for oil .. and rising again .. and maybe 10,000 or so for TSX !!

    • Greg February 6, 2010, 5:18 am

      Is it possible that prices in Calgary could begin to drop to lower levels as unemployment rises? Condo prices have fallen drastically already and if interest rates begin to rise (seems inevitable) I wonder if decreasing demand will drive house prices to new lows as well?
      Most of the Majors (oil companies) have already been through a first round of layoffs with more to come. I don’t think this bodes well for real estate values in Calgary/Alberta.

    • Thomas Beyer February 8, 2010, 6:59 pm

      I expect that house prices will be up and condos flattish in 2010 over 2009 “on average” but UP in some markets and down in some others .. like overbuilt small condos or low demand expensive towns like Canmore .. Calgary probably up a hair or 3 !

      This was written 2 years ago .. Before financial crisis .. So probably a tad too bullish but nevertheless fairly realistic !

      I do NOT see fixed 5 year rates rise a lot .. Just prime rate and thus of course more expensive VARIABLE money !! Still sub 4%!!!

      • Greg February 9, 2010, 1:42 am

        Looks like this may still be a good time to purchase a family home in Calgary as long as the roller coaster ride is over.
        Thanks for the reply Thomas.

    • Wade Graham February 9, 2010, 6:02 pm

      it is great to see blog posts like this one! It sits as a reminder to the past and how we were thinking at a point in time. Yes the majority of us were still quite bullish at the time. Not many could say that they predicted 11000 TSX in 2010.

      many of TB predictions are close and we are still further ahead with our investments that if we had done what most did and that was nothing at all ….calculated risks for future reward!

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