Today I was at the dentist for a cleaning and checkup. (It doesn’t matter how old I get, it’s always nice to hear them say ‘no cavities’.) My dentist has nice TV’s at every chair, so I dialed in some BNN. I had a nice chat with my hygenist who said something along the lines of ‘do you understand the stock market?’

No, I don’t think I really understand investing in stocks. I suppose I understand enough to make an educated decision on when I need to find more information. But what she was really asking was if understand the markets. Do I understand economies? Yes, to her I do. I have a vested interest in how the local and global economies perform, who has jobs and how much they’re making. I care if the IEA changes the supply of oil and on most days I can tell you price of oil within a buck.

The reason that I know about things like that is two fold. First, I’ve always been curious about systems like the macro economic system that is our country. It’s part of why I took (and enjoyed) Econ 101 and 102. The second is that I’ve been listening to smart people analyzing the news and data available for almost 4 years. My favorite part of any REIN meeting is Don Campbell’s segment called “What’s Behind the Curtain”.  He goes through a bunch of recent news stories and research, and translates it into understandable, actionable bites. Peter Kinch is the same way, so I’m posting his great video today about why the BOC won’t be in a hurry to move rates. However, Mark Carney also spoke the other day about the damage super-low rates can have on the markets with respect to risk-taking, so he’d like to be able to move rates back to a more normal level. Peter does a great job of bringing several different stories and explaining why they all impact the ability of the BOC to move rates.

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And we’re back from the break! This time it’s Patrick Shaver from UDI. When will people learn to stop using bad pictures on their powerpoint slides.

This is mostly residential housing info, but looking at growth in the Capital Region for 2011. Keep in mind that he’s a developer, representing developers and they have to develop what people want (affordability, density, location and amenities).

Patrick thinks that people want single family houses, or as he says “Fee Simple is King” in 2011. They want a front door and a patch of grass at the back. Housing Types – they’re looking at the 36-40′ lots, or a detached house on a 30′ lot. There’s a lot of good duplexes coming out with a good combination of attached garages. He thinks we’ll see more townhouses that are street facing.

How do we build higher density? High employment areas, urban villages in suburbs or infill areas. Young professionals, couples with kids, and empty nesters, but also those motivated by price.

Capital Region Board developed a growth plan in 2009, ratified by the provincial government last year (2010). They’ve laid out priority growth areas where they’ll focus infrastructure. They’re also making sure there’s focus on creating denser areas, and there’ are some interesting rural areas where they’re trying to create ‘clustered residential’.

The evolution of the ASP/NSP (area or neighbourhood structure plans) has moved to create denser areas, from 52 persons per net residential hectare to 80+ today and moving to 95 in the city.

Predictions:
- Edmonton to lead the region, but challenged by affordability (due to higher construction costs relatively speaking).
- Higher demand and price for large lot single family
- Higher density in some Edmonton Areas (Downtown, West Downtown, University, some suburban pods like around Heritage with slower absorption)

Current developing areas in Edmonton:
– West, south west and south east, with a good strip on north up against the north leg of the Anthony Henday.
- South is the only expandable option which doesn’t run into other municipalities.

We’re more decentralized, but so is the employment and growth.
- St Albert and Sherwood Park – development is essentially the same as a suburb. Sherwood Park has a lot of variety in product. St. Albert has less smaller SF and doesn’t allow lane product.
- Leduc has some great product variety, and is part of the priority growth curve.
- Fort Saskatchwan is doing well, and the North West Upgrader is going ahead they’ll see some good growth.

Growth occurs here due to:
- Localized demand
- Availability of servicing
- Diversity of housing
- Cost of servicing
- Attitude of municipalities

The 5-year trend forecast for housing starts is going to be modest increases, which levels off. 2010 will be better growth (which makes sense because starts are a lagging economic indicator).

People are looking for more amenities, sustainable/smart/low impact developments.

Patrick was a good speaker, and kept it nice and brief.

We’re getting down to it, with Ian Glassford, CFO of Servus Credit Union. He’s a bit of a quick talker, but reasonably entertaining.

Ian’s very dubious about the possibility of a double dip, but it’s a very divergent economy. The developed economies are a little weak, but there’s lot of positive items. The US, India and China are moving forwards and growing, which can pull the world along.

The IMF Global Outlook lines up with what Servus thinks, with a slower, more stable growth and emergence from the recession. The 2009 doom and gloom was pretty well founded, with advanced economies at -3.2%. Imagine if the sovereign debt crisis hit then, instead of now. The US is still a basket-case, with terrible real estate markets and a crazy banking sector. When you break it down, Germany is carrying the EU’s growth and backstopping the promises of bailouts for Portugal and Ireland. If Germany gets into trouble, the promises become untenable.

Concerned about Government debt (globally), where slow growth plus slightly higher rates doesn’t really help reduce deficits. This can push some of the slower developed countries further down. We are globally dependant on a handful of countries (China, India, Germany). He does point out that in a bad employment and economic situation increased the risk of ‘dysfunctional behaviour’ by US politicians. That’s part of why he thinks we’re seeing acceptance of a cheaper US dollar. That allows (among other things) easier trade of their goods and eventual repayment of their foreign debts with cheaper dollars.

Ian thinks that Canada can beat the IMF forecast (2.7% GDP) if:
– Commodities hold in
- Rates stay low
- Dollar doesn’t get too strong
- But we’ll hit a ceiling until the US gets it’s act together

Patrick’s made the interesting comment for an economist that he doesn’t understand the Chinese economy and that he has a vague concern that they’re stockpiling commodities (which would kind of make sense).
The Bank of Canada gets the risk from the dollar and rates. My favourite quote of the day: Rates that are too low for too long create stupidity.

Interest Rates – Short Term
– Modest upward pressure on rates
- Conditions won’t support meaningful movement until 2012
- The bank used to say a 3% increase in the dollar has the same drag on the economy as a 1% increase in rates. That’s an older formula, but the principle still applies.
- A .5%-.75% hike isn’t unreasonable. We’ve already been through a 0.75% hike, and we can handle it.
- Watch capacity utilization, which might cause faster action by the BofC

Interest Rates – Medium Term 1-2 years out
– There is still ‘considerable monetary stimulus in place’, which is the same as ‘my foot is still on the gas’. Pulling it back would be a 1-2%, but it’s not likely to move until there’s action on inflation
- EQ2 was to get money out of the US banks hands, by pushing yields so low that the banks had to lend it and get it out.
- 5 year rates will move in anticipation, but it’s still a ways out.

How does the US get out of debt? The classic solution is with inflation, which is a worry 2-5 years out.

Housing!
– Ho-hum is Ian’s prediction.
- Housing is more about where you live now, which is better. It gets people out of thinking of their house as making or losing money, and into where they live.

Ian’s going through his 2008 slides to compare what they thought would happen which would cause an Orderly Correction. It does seem to apply, and there’s some interesting math I can provide more for you if you’re curious (just leave a comment).
- Alberta should fare better than most, with a recovery well underway, and a Central Bank which recognizes the importance of a supportive rate environment.

Here’s Richard Goatcher from CMHC

- Employment stats: Full-time exceeding part-time job creation. We’re looking at 5.7% unemployment this year, which is back to a strong demand and helps confidence.
- Edmonton’s 2010 job growth was just barely positive, and the 2011 forecast is ~15,000 which is 2%. 2012 is when the economy really starts to get rolling.
- Interest Rates – Later, rather than sooner.
- Carrying costs – minor changes, with costs staying below the peak 2007 levels.
- MLS Sales – we’re a little slow compared to the past 10 years. 2011 will be up a little bit over 2010 sales, starting off slow and seeing some more movement through the mid-end of the year.
- Listing Supply – We’re still above the 2003-2005 times, and sales to active listing ratio is in buyer’s market territory around 14% right now.
- Average price last year was $329 and now we’re at $308. They’re going to see an average annual price change of 1%, but the front half of the year will be the up to balance the down in the last half of the year.
- There’s some interesting stuff in his slide deck about housing starts, but that’s not an important number at the moment. It’s more about inventory adjustment than market movement. Again, leave a comment and I’ll send a copy of his slide deck over.
- Edmonton Average House Price predictions – Year over year will be essentially the same, but month over month will vary substantially.
- Rental housing inventory which still remains very low (and has since 2005)
- Vacancy rates are coming back down, forecast to drop below 3.5%. (You typically need to see vacancy below 2% to see rental increases over inflation).
- Rents held in 2010 at just over $1,000 for a 2-bedroom on average, but we’ll move up by 2% or so in 2011.

CMHC’s prediction in a nutshell: Next year will be better than this year. 2011 will see slight progression and modest gains. 2012 will really get things moving.

Ron Hutchinson is putting in a quick plug to get Realtors to contact their MP’s and discourage them from increasing down-payments or lowering amortization limits.

MLS Edmonton Housing Price Forecast

Here’s the main event, with RAE President Chris Mooney reviewing the resale housing market for 2011.
- Things moved very quickly in 2010, and the rush caused a swell and drop back in inventory towards the end of the year.
- Prices and sales keep going up and down, rolling along, causing people to react to it like a dodgeball game.
- We’ll start going up towards the end of the year and the next potentially hitting 2007 prices.
- National sales stats get skewed by bigger centres (Vancouver Toronto), and Edmonton seems to move out of step with the national numbers.

Numbers!
- DOM is about 13 days longer in 2010 compared to 2009.
- Inventory is back down around 6,000, which is a little more than what we’d like, but still fine.
- There’s some more interesting numbers about 2010 in review, which I’ll spin into a new post in a little bit.

2011 Real Estate Forecasts!
– Rural and Recreational – Good inventory and DOM will be >100. People are still suckered in by purchasing more US property.
- Commercial/Industrial/Business – Trending upwards with values over $300 Million. Remember, lots of commercial isn’t reported because they sell privately, using a Realtor but without using ICX.
- Multi-Family – Most multi-family sales will remain as rentals. Unabsorbed condos will enter the rental pool, with entry level prices depressed and being a buyer’s opportunity. Forecast low volume but steady.
- Residential Single Family forecast – Prices will increase 3% in 2011. Inventory will hit 7,000 in the spring and go back to normal in the second half of the year. Sales will be up slightly from 10,400 to 11,000.
- Condos – Sales and prices to remain static, with new completions keeping prices in check.
- MLS System Overall – Total sales up from 18.293 to 19,500 and the total value to be up to $7 billion (last seen in 2008).

The Edmonton housing market is stable and ‘normal’. The year will have higher DOM and inventory through Q2, and inventory will drop in Q3-Q4 with DOM falling back to 45 days. Buyers have time to make a good decision, and sellers can sell, but require patience, site improvements (staging) and appropriate pricing.

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I’m blogging this morning from the EREB 2011 Housing market forecast at the Shaw Conference Center. It took me a bit to get here, and Lord only knows where I’m parked, but I’m here. The schedule of events for today:

• Welcome and Opening – Ron Hutchinson, EVP, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton
• Edmonton’s Strength – Garth Warner, President and CEO, Servus Credit Union
• Edmonton Business and Commercial Climate – John Rose, Chief Economist, City of Edmonton

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Then we get a bit of a break, and hopefully I’ll get to publish this (they’ve canned the free Edmonton wi-fi apparently) by tethering my iPhone.

Then after the break (circa 10:15 or so):

• Development Trends – Patrick Shaver, President, Urban Development Institute (UDI)
• Edmonton Housing Analysis – Richard Goatcher, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC
• MLS System Market Forecast – Chris Mooney, President, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

And we’re away to the races, right on time! I didn’t catch this gents’ name, but he’s an EVP for the Realtor’s Association. Apparently this is the 23rd annual forecast.

Ok, we’re about to get rolling with Garth Warner from Servus. He’s babbling about goal setting and new year’s resolutions. While he’s a good speaker, it’s a good reminder to avoid the cheesy jokes when doing public speaking. There’s a lot of thank you’s and rambling, so I’ll spare your eyeballs reading any more out Garth’s optimism.

That was slightly painful.

Now we’re on with John Rose from the City of Edmonton. He’s a little more upbeat, and just compared his job to being the Angel of Death for the last year or two.

The Global Economic Environment has been improving since mid 2009, but with some caveats. Mild concerns about a global double dip, and some fragile global financial market issues. The possibility of reducing stimulus too quickly and other policy mistakes might cause a bit of a bump, but not a full-dip collapse. Beyond the EU monetary issues, there’s a small risk that the US mortgage debt crisis will have more impacts and that’s related to the mortgage rate issues.

Natural Gas is likely to remain low (forecast to stay below $5). Oil is going to remain in the high $80′s or low $90′s for the foreseeable future, but over $100 oil is unlikely. It’s still a very solid price point and good news for us here.

GDP-wise, Alberta was lagging, likely because natural gas didn’t respond to the recovery as expected. The CMA (core) Edmonton was more likely around 3.2% GDP growth, and we weathered the storm quite well.

The dollar being at parity, and he’s expecting we’ll stay around $1.00-1.05 USD for the while ago. It’s fuelled by weakness on the US side more than strength on ours. That’s bad news on two sides: first, it causes competitiveness concerns, and second, it puts upwards pressure on commodity prices. Interest rates, John thinks the Bank of Canada is softening us up, since rates have no where to go but up. He things we’ll see fairly dramatic increases in the second half of 2011, about 0.75% this year, and in 2012 as much as 2%.

Edmonton specifically, has inflation which is essentially 0. Employment is back below 6% (currently at 5.8%), and the good economic prospects stimulating net in-migration. CPI (inflation) is essentially flat, and has been since 2008, which is good news in that costs are in control and prices are moving up modestly and providing stability.

Unemployment is trending down and Canada has recovered all the jobs lost during the recession, as has the city of Edmonton. We’re actually creating jobs at twice the rate of Alberta (which isn’t doing too bad at all). It’s going to take the US at least 4 years to get back to their pre-recession levels, and that doesn’t even take new entrants into account. 6 of every 10 jobs created in Alberta were in the Edmonton area. There’s some remarkable strength in the Edmonton area.

Are we risking another boom and bust cycle? No, the huge growth in 2004-2005 was driven as much by natural gas and conventional oil as it was oil sands growth, and the juice just isn’t there.

He did a three baseline forecast. Baseline (55% probability), High (15%) and Low (30%), used to create the average numbers to drive his forecast. He’s not a fan of the US market at all, and they’ve seen some exceptionally poor performance. The growth outlook is around 3% now, to 3.5-4% in 2012 with a taper off to a 2.2% level out to 2018. The slow down is largely due to demographics, and an ageing labour force.

The Edmonton CMA is going to do well, and the City will be able to expand faster further out, having a slightly younger demographic. There’s another great graphic for the City vs the CMA GDP growth forecast that I’ll try to grab later and edit this post.

Summary:
- Low interest rates won’t last, longer term rates will move up to the more traditional levels, and short term rates have nowhere to go but up.
- Inflation is relatively low, tracking the national rate of 2%, and then moving up to the 3%.
- Modest but solid and sustainable growth out to 2019, and not so much risk of the boom-bust cycle.
- Some downside risk due to the US being sluggish and taking a while to get their stuff sorted.

That’s it for the moment, it’s break time!

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Stephen Gordon writes one of my favorite blogs on economics, and pointed out something interesting about what’s going to hit the news tomorrow.

The CPI will be negative. This does not mean we’re headed for deflation.

Brace yourself for stupid news articles in advance. As Dr. Gordon explains here:

Tomorrow’s headline inflation number will be calculated as follows: take the June 2009 number, divide by the June 2008 number, subtract 1 and multiply by 100. This number will almost certainly be negative, but it will most emphatically be not a sign that Canada has drifted into deflation.

The reason for this is that in June 2008, there was a runup in gasoline prices. Between May and June 2008, the transportation component of the CPI rose at an annual rate of some 22%, and this brought the annualised monthly inflation rate of headline CPI up to 8.8%. Since then, gasoline prices have fallen, and so has the CPI. So when the June 2009 numbers are published, the headline rate of inflation will be calculated using a base of  114.8. In May 2009, the CPI was at 114.1, so the only way we could avoid seeing a negative year-over-year inflation number is if June comes in at 114.8 or higher – an annualised inflation rate of 7.6%. If that happens, the real risk is of inflation, not deflation.

So tomorrow and Saturday, expect to see dumb headlines such as “Canada slips into deflation” in the MSM. Try to ignore them.

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This recession has shown us the power of investing in towns with a diverse employment base because the impact it has on rents, vacancies and prices of real estate. Towns like Windsor are getting hit hard because of Chrysler’s woes and there is very little real estate investors who own in the city could do about it.

Thinking about lack of a diverse employment base I asked a question to David A Wolfe, professor of Economics at my Alma Mater University of Toronto..why don’t more towns diversify it’s economy?

He told me that “every town recognizes and appreciates the importance of diversifying their economy,  it’s a question of how will they.”

There are three problems a city government faces when trying to create jobs:

1. Not enough funding. 85-90% of spending comes from the higher level of governments.
2. Government policy is only one variable that develops an economy and there are multiple variables in causation (think the butterfly effect)
3. time lag on results (you don’t see the results until 10 years in the future).

So who got in wrong and who got it right?

Windsor mobilized the federal government funding 10 years ago to build University of Windsor/Chrysler Canada Ltd. Automotive Research & Development Centre. They got it wrong.

Waterloo mobilized federal and provincial funding to expand university of Waterloo into a world leader in research and innovation and spun off RIM and many other exciting start-ups. They got it right.

Now lets us look at things that are happening now to see where there are signs of a future.

Hamilton – Building the McMaster Innovation park
Saskatoon – Built the synchrotron
Vancouver- Transitioning away from resources and has one of the most diverse economies in Canada.
Calgary – Using oil sands exploration technology for logistics
Kitchener/Cambridge/Waterloo – Research/Technology Park, expansion into medicine and pharmaceuticals, and environmental sciences.

Think jobs, think population growth, think real estate growth.

Brian Persaud from Real Experts Inc has been a REIN member since 2005 and currently buying property in specific neighborhoods in Edmonton.

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Chris inspired me to put this together with his previous post. Here is the latest data that REIN Members look at when we study a real estate market.

RBC’s Affordability Index measures the amount of pre-tax income that goes towards housing for the average person in the region it’s studying.

As Don frequently notes there are serious problems in BC because Canadian’s generally get taxed about 50% of their income (so this means that they have to opt for longer amortization mortgages to afford homes). Something I would like to explore is how much foreign ownership is in Vancouver and the impacts on Vancouver affordability. Please email me (Brian@realexpertsinc.com)  if you have any ideas on how I can track this.
Going to the city level Vancouver is in bubble central and Toronto may experience problems.

Published by the Conference Board of Canada the economic structure of an economy is very important. Economic diversity tells us how the city can deal with shocks to the economy. Surprisingly Edmonton is pretty diverse despite it’s perception of an oil and gas town.

Changes in the average wage is important to look at simply because if wages are going up, more people will be able to afford real estate. This an average increase, so be careful with the numbers. Case in point Halifax wages were at a $690/week last January compared to Toronto were wages were $828/week

Brian Persaud from Real Experts Inc has been a REIN member since 2005 and currently owns property across Ontario, Alberta and Florida.

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Here’s a 20 minute video that gives some pretty cool insight into Mark Carney, Canada’s monetary policy and economic strengths.

The first half is an interview with Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada. The second half is a panel with Kelly Keehn, Jack Mintz from University of Calgary , and Russell Westcott. My notes (liveblogging style) are blow.

My notes and thoughts.

• Talking about Mark Carney, the youngest Central Banker in the G8
• Carney went to Harvard and Oxford. He’s an Edmonton boy, so when he was in town he took some some people to Earl’s Tin Palace on Jasper Ave.
• Do you agree that Alberta’s insulated? It’s a global recession, and there isn’t any part of the global economy which is unaffected. Some areas have some strength which help to mitigate the impacts.
• Alberta’s budget is being released. Here’s Mark’s three thoughts. First there’s a need for stimulus, to fill in the void. The second need is for credible policies with a long term fiscal outlook. Third, there’s a need to make an investment in long term productivity and sustainability.
• Original projections were recovery in ’09 and in ’10 but have been amended. The Bank of Canada actually reviews its forecasts on a quarterly basis, so it’s nothing too crazy. Things that have changed, the global recession is deeper and the timing of our recovery will depend on the stabalization of the global financial system. The problems are outside of Canada.
• David Dodge has criticized the projections. He responded by saying ‘read the transcript of his comments’. The BofC has a very transparent process, and they welcome other people’s inputs.
• Why such a wide variety of projections? There’s a huge amount of uncertianty. The band of uncertianty is wider than the range of projections. The question is how quickly the massive policy responce will take effect (monetary and policy).
• Interest rate cuts, not much farther to go, but are working? They are, monetary policy always works with a lag, but our monetary system is still working. The levels of corporate borrowing have remained steady.
• You’ve been critical of the banks in the past for not passing along rate drops. Now they’ve passed through all but 25 basis points.
• What are the big lessons from what has happened?
• Canada has many lessons we can teach others. You have to have rules and infrastructure, and a measure of prudence. We restricted the level of leverage banks could have.

Then at 12:04, Kelly Keehn, Jack Mintz from UofC, and Russell Westcott.

• Anyone surprised? Kelly Keehn – no. Russell – no. “He who forecasts the most often gets it right eventually.” Jack – “The variability of the forecasts often gets it right eventually.”
• The David Dodge clip at 13:45 is the one where he says ‘likely we’ll do as well as, or better than other countries, but why should we recover very quicky when the rest of the world is recovering moderately.’
• Is it a fair criticisim? Yes, it’s been a remarkable set of changes, and it’ll take the world economy will take a while to re-adjust. Growth will take some time come back. there are huge deficits which will slow that. (and put Alberta ahead)
• What should people be doing? Buying, selling? If you’re planning to live in your house you’ll be ok. It’s not like daytrading, just chill out. If you can’t afford to hold onto it for 5 years, you should still be renting.
• Kelly does point out that the small drop this year over last pales in comparison to the increase the year before.
• Housing is a consumption good, not just an investment.

Getting into Investments:

• Kelly: Understand fear and greed. Get back to basics, and understand your risk profile.
• Jack: Tough time to understand that. People are afraid it’ll get worse before it gets better.
• Russell: Pay yourself first. 100% of investment portfolio is focused on yield.

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Stephen Gordon is a professor of economics at l’Université Laval and together with Nick Rowe writes the Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, one of the most informative reads on Economics news out there. He made a great point a while back that I keep forgetting to mention.

Average Debt dosen’t exist.

The debits and credits balance out. It’s a statistical impossibility to have an average debt. The average is a useless number.  As Nick writes: 

The average debt is zero. The distribution of debt has a zero mean. But the other moments of that distribution may be interesting.

Tell me about the variance of debt, if you like, but don’t tell me about the average.

Tell me about the debt of the top ten percentile, if you like, but be sure to count their credits as well, if they have any.

Tell me about a country’s foreign debt, if you like, but be sure to count its foreign credits as well, if it has any.

Aggregating the data just confuses isues and causes us to lose information. Average debt is a false number. 

Tell me about the average debt of those who have above average (i.e. above zero) net debt, if you like, but don’t pretend it’s the average debt of the population, because it isn’t.

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It’s been a day or so since I posted my survey on which economic indicators we should track. I’ve been tickled pink by the response, both on myREINspace and by those filling out the form. There have been 28 responses thus far, and some interesting trends have appeared. (There’s still time for even more responses. Go do it now!)

When I asked what economic measures you’d like to have compiled on a regular basis, your top five were:

1. Population Growth 
2. Interprovincial Migration 
3. Average Weekly Earnings 
4. Unemployment Rate 
5. Real GDP (Current)

However you surprised the heck out of me with the next question. When asked what areas you cared about, you went for Alberta big time! Almost half of you picked Alberta, and the other half were split between Provincial stats and the major Canadian cities. No one seems to care about national average stats. 

And finally, people seem to want some granularity to the stats. I’m still going to present annual info, as lots of it exists back to 1962, but half want quarterly or some variation thereof, and half want monthly stats. I suppose the monthly stats are good for identifying meso-type trends. 

And some of the best of the other comments:

• Job growth (number of net new jobs created – full and part time) 
• Housing starts/building permits issued, housing affordability index, # jobs created/lost
• Housing Affordability Index, Average household income by town, Retail sales in town
• Manufacturing growth

Maybe now would be a good time to also track foreclosure numbers and bankruptcies and compare Alberta with other jurisdictions? Investors need to have more confidence today.

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I’m going to compile some statistics for real estate investors. Anyone who’s tried to compile some stats and find answers knows how just how frustrating it can be. What I’m going to do is compile the highest impact-metrics, creating some simple ways for you to access the data. I’m also going to create some fun ways to present it, including my personal favorite, the motion chart.

To help me decide which metrics we should track, please take a minute to fill out this survey.

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