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	<title>Chris Davies &#187; Statistics</title>
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		<title>12 Cash-Flow Assumptions You Haven&#8217;t Thought of Yet</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/10/12-cash-flow-assumptions-you-havent-thought-of-yet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/10/12-cash-flow-assumptions-you-havent-thought-of-yet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2011 16:57:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Buying]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Assumptions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank of canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Megan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pro-Formas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Management]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2254</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last weekend Brent and I attended one of the Real Estate Investment Networks&#8217; ACRES weekends. It&#8217;s always a good refresher weekend and the people I meet there always amaze and inspire me. We often take out a booth to share our listings and our services as REALTORS®. However, since Brent joined me this July, we&#8217;ve [...]
Related posts:<ol>
<li><a href='http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/06/buying-multi-family-sellers-market-tips/' rel='bookmark' title='Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips'>Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips</a> <small>It&#8217;s 2011 and Edmonton&#8217;s still a funny market when it...</small></li>
</ol>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/10/12-cash-flow-assumptions-you-havent-thought-of-yet/" title="Permanent link to 12 Cash-Flow Assumptions You Haven&#8217;t Thought of Yet"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/100-billion-dollar-bill.jpg" width="499" height="500" alt="Post image for 12 Cash-Flow Assumptions You Haven&#8217;t Thought of Yet" /></a>
</p><p>Last weekend <a href="http://www.brentdavies.com" target="_blank">Brent</a> and I attended one of the <a href="http://www.realestateinvestingincanada.com/entity/tabid/58/c-15-rein-live-events.aspx?a_aid=4bedb521e9863&amp;a_bid=21a50df0 " target="_blank">Real Estate Investment Networks&#8217; ACRES weekends</a>. It&#8217;s always a good refresher weekend and the people I meet there always amaze and inspire me.</p>
<p>We often take out a booth to share our listings and our services as <a href="http://www.chrisdaviesrealestate.com" target="_blank">REALTORS</a>®. However, since Brent joined me this July, we&#8217;ve been quite busy on the multi-family side of the business.  To help promote a few listings I did up 20&#8243;x30&#8243; posters of a couple apartment buildings which are available. There&#8217;s always lots of discussion on what information goes into a proforma (financial summary) for a property and what investors can/should plug into REIN&#8217;s Property Analyzer for cash flow analysis. Here&#8217;s some assumptions you should consider, and some you should be aware of.</p>
<p><strong>Inflation</strong> &#8211; Remember, the <a href="http://www.bankofcanada.ca/monetary-policy-introduction/framework/inflation-control-target/" target="_blank">Bank of Canada</a> aims to have inflation running between 2-2.2%, so for any costs that change, that&#8217;s my baseline.</p>
<p><strong>Purchase Price</strong> &#8211; you should know your local market (or work with a buyers&#8217; agent who does) well enough to know what the value of a property is before you look at the list (asking) price. Getting a discount with respect to list price does nothing but feed your ego. Know what properties have sold for, and be able to explain that to the sellers, personally, through your agent or in a cover letter. For some areas in Edmonton, I know the ballpark, so for quick analysis I just take 1-2% off the list price because for properly listed prices, that&#8217;s what things sell for. Again, there&#8217;s no substute for good data on sold properties and an agent who knows the area and the history.</p>
<p><strong>Repairs and Renovations</strong> &#8211; I always assume at least $2,000 will be spend in the first few months. That&#8217;s both spent tidying up little things they sellers just did a quick fix for and also for normalizing the properties or making tenants happy. I usually get asked what I mean by &#8216;normalizing&#8217;. Ideally, all my properties have the same faucets, appliances, flooring, locks/door knobs, light fixtures, etc. That makes it faster, easier and cheaper to repair things when they break.</p>
<p><strong>Current Rent</strong> &#8211; If you&#8217;re buying something that already has tenants in it, either single family or multi-family then this number comes from the vendor and should be confirmed before going unconditional and buying the property. If it&#8217;s vacant then you need to know what it&#8217;ll rent for today. Again, market knowledge is king and part of the reason I&#8217;m a fan of buying several units in a complex which you already know. To help make things easier for Edmonton investors, I&#8217;ve surveyed several property managers and investors to create a <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/resources/edmonton-rental-market-surveys/" target="_blank">rental market survey</a> that you can <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Uploads/Results-Edmonton-Rental-Survey-July2011.pdf" target="_blank">download for free</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Projected Rent</strong> &#8211; The projected rent comes in two flavours. First, this is how much you can rent it for or raise the rent to when you are next raising the rent or filling a vacancy. The second is where rents will go in the next few years. CMHC publishes some information and limited projections. For example, spring 2011 has the <a href="http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64343/64343_2011_B01.pdf" target="_blank">average 2-bedroom at $1030</a>, with a projected 2012 price at $1060, or a 3% increase. If nothing else, I use a 2-2.2% increase, which is the Bank of Canada&#8217;s mandated range of inflation.</p>
<p><strong>Vacancy</strong> &#8211; <a href="http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/homain/index.cfm" target="_blank">CMHC publishes lots of stats</a>, but I also use my own historical vacancy because I have better than average property management. For apartments I use 4% and for single-family I use 5%.</p>
<p><strong>Utilities</strong> &#8211; For all my single family properties I have the tenants pay the utilities. If I&#8217;m on the hook I look for actual historical amounts from the vendors, while for multi-family that&#8217;ll be included in the financial information provided during the due diligence period.</p>
<p><strong>Property Management</strong> &#8211; As a rule I use 10% for single family through to 4-plexes. For multi family I use ~6% up to 8 doors, and 4-5% beyond that.</p>
<p><strong>Financing</strong> &#8211; I use prime plus 1%. That&#8217;ll put us somewhere between the VRM and fixed costs. I also use a 30 year amortization, since that&#8217;s what I look for myself.</p>
<p><strong>Multi-Family Specific Assumptions</strong></p>
<p><strong>Expenses</strong> &#8211; CMHC will use ~$3,600/suite/year in their projections unless you can prove that the real costs are lower than that. It&#8217;s still a good ballpark. Costs will be higher on older buildings, higher on concrete/steel construction that wood frame, and higher on poorly maintained buildings.</p>
<p><strong>CAP Rate</strong> - Capitalization rates are always tough to figure out and one of the reasons we pay for private sources of sold commercial data. Today (Fall 2011) in Edmonton sellers are asking 4.5-6%, while CMHC is financing a maximum of ~7%.</p>
<p><strong>Ownership and Tax</strong> - For multi-family buildings in Edmonton I always assume that the property is held in a company and will be subject to the top tax rate, which in Alberta is 17%. I also assume that the goal of the investor is long term buy and hold unless we&#8217;ve discussed otherwise. That way we have a base to determine how to handle slightly more complex items like maximizing the use of terminal losses if you decide to tear the building down and rebuild after several years.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a projection for everything, but be sure to use realistic numbers. Also, it&#8217;s always a good idea to do a 5-year cash-flow model to get an idea of the impact of time on your investment.</p>
<p>Related posts:<ol>
<li><a href='http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/06/buying-multi-family-sellers-market-tips/' rel='bookmark' title='Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips'>Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips</a> <small>It&#8217;s 2011 and Edmonton&#8217;s still a funny market when it...</small></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Edmonton Rental Market Survey &#8211; June/July 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/07/edmonton-rental-market-survey-junejuly-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/07/edmonton-rental-market-survey-junejuly-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jul 2011 17:26:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rental Market Survey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rentals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2240</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Things have started moving a little more quickly in the Edmonton rental market this spring. Incentives have almost totally disappeared, and many Property Mangers and investors have said they&#8217;re starting to test the waters, moving rents up by $50-200/unit. Vacancy is down more, slightly below 4% according to Colliers, and things are (usually) renting quickly. [...]
Related posts:<ol>
<li><a href='http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/06/buying-multi-family-sellers-market-tips/' rel='bookmark' title='Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips'>Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips</a> <small>It&#8217;s 2011 and Edmonton&#8217;s still a funny market when it...</small></li>
</ol>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/07/edmonton-rental-market-survey-junejuly-2011/" title="Permanent link to Edmonton Rental Market Survey &#8211; June/July 2011"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/Edmonton-July2011-Rent-Survey.png" width="500" height="362" alt="Post image for Edmonton Rental Market Survey &#8211; June/July 2011" /></a>
</p><p>Things have started moving a little more quickly in the Edmonton rental market this spring. Incentives have almost totally disappeared, and many Property Mangers and investors have said they&#8217;re starting to test the waters, moving rents up by $50-200/unit. Vacancy is down more, slightly below 4% <a href="http://www.colliers-international.com/Edmonton/Multifamily/Quarterly%20Report_Multi%20Family_July%202011.pdf" target="_blank">according to Colliers</a>, and things are (usually) renting quickly. I&#8217;m still seeing positive cash-flow in detached single family houses without a suite, with nice units renting very quickly. In one case the bank did a rent appraisal which came in $150/month higher than our assumption before purchase!</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the July 2011 update to my <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/resources/edmonton-rental-market-surveys/" target="_blank">Edmonton Rental Market Survey</a>. We had another 36 units updated, bringing the total to over 750. I&#8217;d still like more input from investors, managers and brokers, so please subscribe and I&#8217;ll email you next time I&#8217;m pulling the data.</p>
<p>You can download the PDF version of the <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Uploads/Results-Edmonton-Rental-Survey-July2011.pdf " target="_blank">Rental Market Survey here</a> and you can <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/resources/edmonton-rental-market-surveys/#updates" target="_blank">signup for updates here</a>. Happy Renting!</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Uploads/Results-Edmonton-Rental-Survey-July2011.pdf "><img class="aligncenter" style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Edmonton Rental Market Survey July 2011" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/Edmonton-July2011-Rent-Survey.png" alt="" width="300" height="217" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Related posts:<ol>
<li><a href='http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/06/buying-multi-family-sellers-market-tips/' rel='bookmark' title='Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips'>Buying Multi-Family &#8211; Sellers&#8217; Market Tips</a> <small>It&#8217;s 2011 and Edmonton&#8217;s still a funny market when it...</small></li>
</ol></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast – Part 2</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-%e2%80%93-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-%e2%80%93-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Jan 2011 20:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic Fundamentals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EREB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UDI]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[Ed Note: If you've surfed here looking for the price of your own home, you can signup for a free market evaluation on my main site.] And we&#8217;re back from the break! This time it&#8217;s Patrick Shaver from UDI. When will people learn to stop using bad pictures on their powerpoint slides. This is mostly residential housing [...]
No related posts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-%e2%80%93-part-2/" title="Permanent link to Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast – Part 2"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/IMG_0775.jpg" width="500" height="375" alt="Post image for Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast – Part 2" /></a>
</p><p>[<em>Ed Note</em>: If you've surfed here looking for the price of your own home, you can signup for a <a href="http://www.chrisdaviesrealestate.com/home-evaluation.php">free market evaluation</a> on my main site.]</p>
<p>And we&#8217;re back from the break! This time it&#8217;s Patrick Shaver from UDI. When will people learn to stop using bad pictures on their powerpoint slides.</p>
<p>This is mostly residential housing info, but looking at growth in the Capital Region for 2011. Keep in mind that he&#8217;s a developer, representing developers and they have to develop what people want (affordability, density, location and amenities).</p>
<p>Patrick thinks that people want single family houses, or as he says &#8220;Fee Simple is King&#8221; in 2011. They want a front door and a patch of grass at the back. Housing Types &#8211; they&#8217;re looking at the 36-40&#8242; lots, or a detached house on a 30&#8242; lot. There&#8217;s a lot of good duplexes coming out with a good combination of attached garages. He thinks we&#8217;ll see more townhouses that are street facing.</p>
<p>How do we build higher density? High employment areas, urban villages in suburbs or infill areas. Young professionals, couples with kids, and empty nesters, but also those motivated by price.</p>
<p>Capital Region Board developed a growth plan in 2009, ratified by the provincial government last year (2010). They&#8217;ve laid out priority growth areas where they&#8217;ll focus infrastructure. They&#8217;re also making sure there&#8217;s focus on creating denser areas, and there&#8217; are some interesting rural areas where they&#8217;re trying to create &#8216;clustered residential&#8217;.</p>
<p>The evolution of the ASP/NSP (area or neighbourhood structure plans) has moved to create denser areas, from 52 persons per net residential hectare to 80+ today and moving to 95 in the city.</p>
<p><strong>Predictions</strong>:<br />
- Edmonton to lead the region, but challenged by affordability (due to higher construction costs relatively speaking).<br />
- Higher demand and price for large lot single family<br />
- Higher density in some Edmonton Areas (Downtown, West Downtown, University, some suburban pods like around Heritage with slower absorption)</p>
<p><strong>Current developing areas in Edmonton:<br />
</strong> &#8211; West, south west and south east, with a good strip on north up against the north leg of the Anthony Henday.<br />
- South is the only expandable option which doesn&#8217;t run into other municipalities.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re more decentralized, but so is the employment and growth.<br />
- St Albert and Sherwood Park &#8211; development is essentially the same as a suburb. Sherwood Park has a lot of variety in product. St. Albert has less smaller SF and doesn&#8217;t allow lane product.<br />
- Leduc has some great product variety, and is part of the priority growth curve.<br />
- Fort Saskatchwan is doing well, and the North West Upgrader is going ahead they&#8217;ll see some good growth.</p>
<p>Growth occurs here due to:<br />
- Localized demand<br />
- Availability of servicing<br />
- Diversity of housing<br />
- Cost of servicing<br />
- Attitude of municipalities</p>
<p><strong>The 5-year trend forecast for housing starts is going to be modest increases, which levels off. 2010 will be better growth (which makes sense because starts are a lagging economic indicator). </strong></p>
<p>People are looking for more amenities, sustainable/smart/low impact developments.</p>
<p>Patrick was a good speaker, and kept it nice and brief.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re getting down to it, with <strong>Ian Glassford, CFO of Servus Credit Union</strong>. He&#8217;s a bit of a quick talker, but reasonably entertaining.</p>
<p>Ian&#8217;s very dubious about the possibility of a double dip, but it&#8217;s a very divergent economy. The developed economies are a little weak, but there&#8217;s lot of positive items. The US, India and China are moving forwards and growing, which can pull the world along.</p>
<p>The IMF Global Outlook lines up with what Servus thinks, with a slower, more stable growth and emergence from the recession. The 2009 doom and gloom was pretty well founded, with advanced economies at -3.2%. Imagine if the sovereign debt crisis hit then, instead of now. The US is still a basket-case, with terrible real estate markets and a crazy banking sector. When you break it down, Germany is carrying the EU&#8217;s growth and backstopping the promises of bailouts for Portugal and Ireland. If Germany gets into trouble, the promises become untenable.</p>
<p>Concerned about Government debt (globally), where slow growth plus slightly higher rates doesn&#8217;t really help reduce deficits. This can push some of the slower developed countries further down. We are globally dependant on a handful of countries (China, India, Germany). He does point out that in a bad employment and economic situation increased the risk of &#8216;dysfunctional behaviour&#8217; by US politicians. That&#8217;s part of why he thinks we&#8217;re seeing acceptance of a cheaper US dollar. That allows (among other things) easier trade of their goods and eventual repayment of their foreign debts with cheaper dollars.</p>
<p><strong>Ian thinks that Canada can beat the IMF forecast (2.7% GDP) if:<br />
</strong> &#8211; Commodities hold in<br />
- Rates stay low<br />
- Dollar doesn&#8217;t get too strong<br />
- But we&#8217;ll hit a ceiling until the US gets it&#8217;s act together</p>
<p>Patrick&#8217;s made the interesting comment for an economist that he doesn&#8217;t understand the Chinese economy and that he has a vague concern that they&#8217;re stockpiling commodities (which would kind of make sense).<br />
The Bank of Canada gets the risk from the dollar and rates. My favourite quote of the day: Rates that are too low for too long create stupidity.</p>
<p><strong>Interest Rates &#8211; Short Term<br />
</strong> &#8211; Modest upward pressure on rates<br />
- Conditions won&#8217;t support meaningful movement until 2012<br />
- The bank used to say a 3% increase in the dollar has the same drag on the economy as a 1% increase in rates. That&#8217;s an older formula, but the principle still applies.<br />
- A .5%-.75% hike isn&#8217;t unreasonable. We&#8217;ve already been through a 0.75% hike, and we can handle it.<br />
- Watch capacity utilization, which might cause faster action by the BofC</p>
<p><strong>Interest Rates &#8211; Medium Term 1-2 years out<br />
</strong> &#8211; There is still &#8216;considerable monetary stimulus in place&#8217;, which is the same as &#8216;my foot is still on the gas&#8217;. Pulling it back would be a 1-2%, but it&#8217;s not likely to move until there&#8217;s action on inflation<br />
- EQ2 was to get money out of the US banks hands, by pushing yields so low that the banks had to lend it and get it out.<br />
- 5 year rates will move in anticipation, but it&#8217;s still a ways out.</p>
<p>How does the US get out of debt? The classic solution is with inflation, which is a worry 2-5 years out.</p>
<p><strong>Housing!<br />
</strong> &#8211; Ho-hum is Ian&#8217;s prediction.<br />
- Housing is more about where you live now, which is better. It gets people out of thinking of their house as making or losing money, and into where they live.</p>
<p>Ian&#8217;s going through his 2008 slides to compare what they thought would happen which would cause an Orderly Correction. It does seem to apply, and there&#8217;s some interesting math I can provide more for you if you&#8217;re curious (just leave a comment).<br />
- Alberta should fare better than most, with a recovery well underway, and a Central Bank which recognizes the importance of a supportive rate environment.</p>
<p><strong>Here&#8217;s Richard Goatcher from CMHC</strong></p>
<p>- Employment stats: Full-time exceeding part-time job creation. We&#8217;re looking at 5.7% unemployment this year, which is back to a strong demand and helps confidence.<br />
- Edmonton&#8217;s 2010 job growth was just barely positive, and the 2011 forecast is ~15,000 which is 2%. 2012 is when the economy really starts to get rolling.<br />
- Interest Rates &#8211; Later, rather than sooner.<br />
- Carrying costs &#8211; minor changes, with costs staying below the peak 2007 levels.<br />
- MLS Sales &#8211; we&#8217;re a little slow compared to the past 10 years. 2011 will be up a little bit over 2010 sales, starting off slow and seeing some more movement through the mid-end of the year.<br />
- Listing Supply &#8211; We&#8217;re still above the 2003-2005 times, and sales to active listing ratio is in buyer&#8217;s market territory around 14% right now.<br />
- Average price last year was $329 and now we&#8217;re at $308. They&#8217;re going to see an average annual price change of 1%, but the front half of the year will be the up to balance the down in the last half of the year.<br />
- There&#8217;s some interesting stuff in his slide deck about housing starts, but that&#8217;s not an important number at the moment. It&#8217;s more about inventory adjustment than market movement. Again, leave a comment and I&#8217;ll send a copy of his slide deck over.<br />
- Edmonton Average House Price predictions &#8211; Year over year will be essentially the same, but month over month will vary substantially.<br />
- Rental housing inventory which still remains very low (and has since 2005)<br />
- Vacancy rates are coming back down, forecast to drop below 3.5%. (You typically need to see vacancy below 2% to see rental increases over inflation).<br />
- Rents held in 2010 at just over $1,000 for a 2-bedroom on average, but we&#8217;ll move up by 2% or so in 2011.</p>
<p>CMHC&#8217;s prediction in a nutshell: Next year will be better than this year. 2011 will see slight progression and modest gains. 2012 will really get things moving.</p>
<p>Ron Hutchinson is putting in a quick plug to get Realtors to contact their MP&#8217;s and discourage them from increasing down-payments or lowering amortization limits.</p>
<p><strong>MLS Edmonton Housing Price Forecast</strong></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the main event, with<strong> RAE President Chris Mooney </strong>reviewing the resale housing market for 2011.<br />
- Things moved very quickly in 2010, and the rush caused a swell and drop back in inventory towards the end of the year.<br />
- Prices and sales keep going up and down, rolling along, causing people to react to it like a dodgeball game.<br />
- We&#8217;ll start going up towards the end of the year and the next potentially hitting 2007 prices.<br />
- National sales stats get skewed by bigger centres (Vancouver Toronto), and Edmonton seems to move out of step with the national numbers.</p>
<p><strong>Numbers!</strong><br />
- DOM is about 13 days longer in 2010 compared to 2009.<br />
- Inventory is back down around 6,000, which is a little more than what we&#8217;d like, but still fine.<br />
- There&#8217;s some more interesting numbers about 2010 in review, which I&#8217;ll spin into a new post in a little bit.</p>
<p><strong>2011 Real Estate Forecasts!<br />
</strong> &#8211; Rural and Recreational &#8211; Good inventory and DOM will be &gt;100. People are still suckered in by purchasing more US property.<br />
- Commercial/Industrial/Business &#8211; Trending upwards with values over $300 Million. Remember, lots of commercial isn&#8217;t reported because they sell privately, using a Realtor but without using ICX.<br />
- Multi-Family &#8211; Most multi-family sales will remain as rentals. Unabsorbed condos will enter the rental pool, with entry level prices depressed and being a buyer&#8217;s opportunity. Forecast low volume but steady.<br />
- Residential Single Family forecast &#8211; Prices will increase 3% in 2011. Inventory will hit 7,000 in the spring and go back to normal in the second half of the year. Sales will be up slightly from 10,400 to 11,000.<br />
- Condos &#8211; Sales and prices to remain static, with new completions keeping prices in check.<br />
- MLS System Overall &#8211; Total sales up from 18.293 to 19,500 and the total value to be up to $7 billion (last seen in 2008).</p>
<p>The Edmonton housing market is stable and &#8216;normal&#8217;. The year will have higher DOM and inventory through Q2, and inventory will drop in Q3-Q4 with DOM falling back to 45 days. Buyers have time to make a good decision, and sellers can sell, but require patience, site improvements (staging) and appropriate pricing.</p>
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		<title>Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast &#8211; Part 1</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-part-1/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-part-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Jan 2011 16:37:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic Fundamentals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EREB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m blogging this morning from the EREB 2011 Housing market forecast at the Shaw Conference Center. It took me a bit to get here, and Lord only knows where I&#8217;m parked, but I&#8217;m here. The schedule of events for today: Welcome and Opening &#8211; Ron Hutchinson, EVP, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Edmonton&#8217;s Strength &#8211; Garth [...]
No related posts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2011/01/edmonton-real-estate-board-2011-house-price-forecast-part-1/" title="Permanent link to Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast &#8211; Part 1"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/IMG_0777.jpg" width="500" height="375" alt="Post image for Edmonton Real Estate Board 2011 House Price Forecast &#8211; Part 1" /></a>
</p><p>I&#8217;m blogging this morning from the EREB 2011 Housing market forecast at the Shaw Conference Center. It took me a bit to get here, and Lord only knows where I&#8217;m parked, but I&#8217;m here. The schedule of events for today:</p>
<ul>
<li>Welcome and Opening &#8211; Ron Hutchinson, EVP, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton</li>
<li>Edmonton&#8217;s Strength &#8211; Garth Warner, President and CEO, Servus Credit Union</li>
<li>Edmonton Business and Commercial Climate &#8211; John Rose, Chief Economist, City of Edmonton</li>
</ul>
<p>[<em>Ed Note</em>: If you've surfed here looking for the price of your own home, you can signup for a <a href="http://www.chrisdaviesrealestate.com/home-evaluation.php">free market evaluation</a> on my main site.]</p>
<p>Then we get a bit of a break, and hopefully I&#8217;ll get to publish this (they&#8217;ve canned the free Edmonton wi-fi apparently) by tethering my iPhone.</p>
<p>Then after the break (circa 10:15 or so):</p>
<ul>
<li>Development Trends &#8211; Patrick Shaver, President, Urban Development Institute (UDI)</li>
<li>Edmonton Housing Analysis &#8211; Richard Goatcher, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC</li>
<li>MLS System Market Forecast &#8211; Chris Mooney, President, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton</li>
</ul>
<p>And we&#8217;re away to the races, right on time! I didn&#8217;t catch this gents&#8217; name, but he&#8217;s an EVP for the Realtor&#8217;s Association. Apparently this is the 23rd annual forecast.</p>
<p>Ok, we&#8217;re about to get rolling with Garth Warner from Servus. He&#8217;s babbling about goal setting and new year&#8217;s resolutions. While he&#8217;s a good speaker, it&#8217;s a good reminder to avoid the cheesy jokes when doing public speaking. There&#8217;s a lot of thank you&#8217;s and rambling, so I&#8217;ll spare your eyeballs reading any more out Garth&#8217;s optimism.</p>
<p>That was slightly painful.</p>
<p><strong>Now we&#8217;re on with John Rose from the City of Edmonton.</strong> He&#8217;s a little more upbeat, and just compared his job to being the Angel of Death for the last year or two.</p>
<p>The Global Economic Environment has been improving since mid 2009, but with some caveats. Mild concerns about a global double dip, and some fragile global financial market issues. The possibility of reducing stimulus too quickly and other policy mistakes might cause a bit of a bump, but not a full-dip collapse. Beyond the EU monetary issues, there&#8217;s a small risk that the US mortgage debt crisis will have more impacts and that&#8217;s related to the mortgage rate issues.</p>
<p>Natural Gas is likely to remain low (forecast to stay below $5). Oil is going to remain in the high $80&#8242;s or low $90&#8242;s for the foreseeable future, but over $100 oil is unlikely. It&#8217;s still a very solid price point and good news for us here.</p>
<p>GDP-wise, Alberta was lagging, likely because natural gas didn&#8217;t respond to the recovery as expected. The CMA (core) Edmonton was more likely around 3.2% GDP growth, and we weathered the storm quite well.</p>
<p>The dollar being at parity, and he&#8217;s expecting we&#8217;ll stay around $1.00-1.05 USD for the while ago. It&#8217;s fuelled by weakness on the US side more than strength on ours. That&#8217;s bad news on two sides: first, it causes competitiveness concerns, and second, it puts upwards pressure on commodity prices. Interest rates, John thinks the Bank of Canada is softening us up, since rates have no where to go but up. He things we&#8217;ll see fairly dramatic increases in the second half of 2011, about 0.75% this year, and in 2012 as much as 2%.</p>
<p>Edmonton specifically, has inflation which is essentially 0. Employment is back below 6% (currently at 5.8%), and the good economic prospects stimulating net in-migration. CPI (inflation) is essentially flat, and has been since 2008, which is good news in that costs are in control and prices are moving up modestly and providing stability.</p>
<p>Unemployment is trending down and Canada has recovered all the jobs lost during the recession, as has the city of Edmonton. We&#8217;re actually creating jobs at twice the rate of Alberta (which isn&#8217;t doing too bad at all). It&#8217;s going to take the US at least 4 years to get back to their pre-recession levels, and that doesn&#8217;t even take new entrants into account. 6 of every 10 jobs created in Alberta were in the Edmonton area. There&#8217;s some remarkable strength in the Edmonton area.</p>
<p>Are we risking another boom and bust cycle? No, the huge growth in 2004-2005 was driven as much by natural gas and conventional oil as it was oil sands growth, and the juice just isn&#8217;t there.</p>
<p>He did a three baseline forecast. Baseline (55% probability), High (15%) and Low (30%), used to create the average numbers to drive his forecast. He&#8217;s not a fan of the US market at all, and they&#8217;ve seen some exceptionally poor performance. The growth outlook is around 3% now, to 3.5-4% in 2012 with a taper off to a 2.2% level out to 2018. The slow down is largely due to demographics, and an ageing labour force.</p>
<p>The Edmonton CMA is going to do well, and the City will be able to expand faster further out, having a slightly younger demographic. There&#8217;s another great graphic for the City vs the CMA GDP growth forecast that I&#8217;ll try to grab later and edit this post.</p>
<p>Summary:<br />
- Low interest rates won&#8217;t last, longer term rates will move up to the more traditional levels, and short term rates have nowhere to go but up.<br />
- Inflation is relatively low, tracking the national rate of 2%, and then moving up to the 3%.<br />
- Modest but solid and sustainable growth out to 2019, and not so much risk of the boom-bust cycle.<br />
- Some downside risk due to the US being sluggish and taking a while to get their stuff sorted.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s it for the moment, it&#8217;s break time!</p>
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		<title>Edmonton Rental Market Report &#8211; Dec 2010</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2010/12/edmonton-rental-market-report/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2010/12/edmonton-rental-market-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Dec 2010 22:51:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Property Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apartments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[condos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Millwoods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rental Market Survey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rentals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Albert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tools]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[townhouses]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Knowing what a potential revenue property will rent for is the most important and most difficult part of establishing a rental portfolio that has positive cash-flow and creates serious passive income. To help out my clients, readers and all you investors, I&#8217;ve teamed up with several investors, Realtors and property managers to come up with some ballpark [...]
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>Knowing what a potential revenue property will rent for is the most important and most difficult part of establishing a rental portfolio that has positive cash-flow and creates serious passive income. To help out my clients, readers and all you investors, I&#8217;ve teamed up with several investors, Realtors and property managers to come up with some ballpark numbers which should help make your lives a little easier.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the basic info for you. A screenshot follows and you can <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Uploads/Edmonton-Rental-Survey-Dec2010.pdf " target="_blank">download the whole report free of charge</a>. You can signup to <a href="http://eepurl.com/ug6p" target="_blank">recieve future updates here</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/Dec2010-Edmonton-Rental-Market.png  "><img class="aligncenter" style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Edmonton Rental Market Report December 2010" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/Dec2010-Edmonton-Rental-Market.png  " alt="" width="406" height="298" /></a></p>
<p>There&#8217;s a significant variation between the different areas of Edmonton, and within the different property types. Here are the highlights.</p>
<ul>
<li>The survey receieved responses from companies and individuals managing 744 units, with specific data for properties rented out in the past 30 days. Some additional data has been gathered by conversations with property managers. There are still gaps, so if you can contribute to the next edition of this report, please feel free to <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/contact">contact me</a>.</li>
<li> The greatest variance is seen in 4-bedroom houses, from $1400-1800/month, likely owning to the wider variety of product quality.</li>
<li>Apartments and Townhouses made up the largest classes of properties held by contributors.</li>
<li>St Albert, the South, West and Millwoods seem to hold a $100-200 premium over comparable units in the North.</li>
</ul>
<p>Thanks to <a href="http://www.daviesmanagement.com" target="_blank">Davies Management</a>, <a href="http://www.prestprop.com/" target="_blank">Prestigious Properties</a>, <a href="www.avantgardepropertymanagement.com" target="_blank">Avangarde Property Management</a>, <a href="http://www.911Rent.ca" target="_blank">911 Rent</a>, Jason Scott at <a href="http://www.refinancealberta.ca/" target="_blank">Urban Mortgage Edmonton</a>, <a href="http://www.rentexhomes.com/" target="_blank">Rentex</a>, Candema Property Management and <a href="http://www.glennsimoninc.com/" target="_blank">Glenn Simon Inc.</a>.</p>
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		<title>RE/MAX 2011 Housing Outlook</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2010/12/remax-2011-housing-outlook/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2010/12/remax-2011-housing-outlook/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Dec 2010 20:53:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Graphs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=2066</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The RE/MAX 2011 Housing Outlook is just out, and there&#8217;s some interesting ideas in there. Not everyone agrees (including the Edmonton Real Estate Board, whose 2011 Forecast comes out next month, watch for the live blog). Rather than just write a bunch of blog posts, I&#8217;m creating a resources section. There&#8217;s already a page there [...]
No related posts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2010/12/remax-2011-housing-outlook/" title="Permanent link to RE/MAX 2011 Housing Outlook"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/ReMax-2011-Housing-Outlook-Cover-Page.jpg" width="500" height="645" alt="Post image for RE/MAX 2011 Housing Outlook" /></a>
</p><p>The <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-housing-market-outlook-2011/">RE/MAX 2011 Housing Outlook</a> is just out, and there&#8217;s some interesting ideas in there. Not everyone agrees (including the Edmonton Real Estate Board, whose 2011 Forecast comes out next month, watch for the live blog).</p>
<p>Rather than just write a bunch of blog posts, I&#8217;m creating a resources section. There&#8217;s already a page there for the <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-housing-market-outlook-2011/">RE/MAX 2011 forecast</a>, and others will follow as I get them. Now, just cause everyone loves a good graph or two, here are a couple of them.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/canada-2011-housing-price-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/canada-2011-Sales-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/Edmonton-2011-housing-price-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/Edmonton-2011-Sales-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/Calgary-2011-housing-price-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-2011-forecast/Calgary-2011-Sales-forecast-remax.png" alt="" /></p>
<p>You can see the d<a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/remax-housing-market-outlook-2011/">ata for all 26 Canadian Cities here</a>.</p>
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		<title>ACRE Weekend Resources for Newbies</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/11/acre-weekend-resources-for-newbies/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/11/acre-weekend-resources-for-newbies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Nov 2009 09:33:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[REIN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Don R. Campbell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Family]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joint Ventures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Presentations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[REIN meetings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=1361</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well, Saturday morning in Calgary will find a bunch of people in a room with Russell Westcott, Don Campbell and a bunch of exceptionally successful real estate investors. I wish I could be there, meeting people, seeing what&#8217;s new and being inspired. It&#8217;s an ACREs (Authentic Canadian Real Estate Seminar) weekend, put on by REIN. [...]
No related posts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a class="post_image_link" href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/11/acre-weekend-resources-for-newbies/" title="Permanent link to ACRE Weekend Resources for Newbies"><img class="post_image alignnone remove_bottom_margin" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/muppets.jpg" width="320" height="240" alt="Post image for ACRE Weekend Resources for Newbies" /></a>
</p><p>Well, Saturday morning in Calgary will find a bunch of people in a room with Russell Westcott, Don Campbell and a bunch of exceptionally successful real estate investors. I wish I could be there, meeting people, seeing what&#8217;s new and being inspired. It&#8217;s an ACREs (Authentic Canadian Real Estate Seminar) weekend, put on by REIN.</p>
<p>If it&#8217;s your first time at at REIN event (which will be most of the people there), here&#8217;s a selection of the over 300 posts on my site. It&#8217;s a mix of the most popular, most controversial, most useful and most personal. Enjoy!</p>
<h3>My first ACRES/Quickstart weekend, my personal Belize (vision) and family.</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href=" "> </a><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/02/my-personal-belize/">My Personal Belize</a> &#8211; a vision statement, expressing what I want my life to be like in the future and how real estate will help get me there. It&#8217;s working out pretty well, as Megan and I have been in Ireland for the last two months&#8230;</li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/02/credit-where-credit-is-due/">Kudos to my parents</a>, who have been a major influence on my journey. And <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/06/a-trip-to-belize/">Mom and Dad</a> enjoying a bit of their personal Belize.</li>
<li>Accepting <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/02/it-is-your-destiny/">real estate&#8217;s place in my life</a> and on this blog.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/03/things-i-could-tell-you-in-my-sleep/">A guest post from my younger sister</a>. You&#8217;ll start to get the feeling that real estate is something that&#8217;s been baked into my family for quite a while (four generations actually).</li>
<li>And a some words on picking a niche. Particularly apt with all the Ron LeGrande stuff going around right now: <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/what-do-i-do/">What Do I Do?</a> and <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/02/define-your-investing-niche/">Define Your Investing Niche</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Tips, Tools, Mistakes and Systems</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/02/six-steps-to-finding-cashflow-creek/">Six Steps to Finding Cashflow Creek</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/06/the-black-triangle-of-east-edmonton/">The Black Triangle of East Edmonton Eats New Investors</a><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/edmontons-black-triangle-presentation/">Edmonton’s Black Triangle Presentation</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/10/top-ontario-rental-website/">The Top Ontario Rental Websites – Fall 2009</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/07/canadian-rental-website-rankings-june-2009/">Canadian Rental Website Rankings – June 2009</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/10/get-used-to-scum/">Get Used to Scum</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/06/canadian-internet-marketing-resources/">Canadian Internet Marketing Resources</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/top-6-things-when-interest-rates-drop/">6 Things You Should Do To Your Mortgage When Interest Rates Drop</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Property Management Experiences and Tips</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/04/got-dead-people-and-what-to-do-with-them/">What to do with dead tenants</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/05/need-a-property-manager-10-tips-to-land-the-best/">Need a Property Manager? 10 Tips to Land the Best!</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/02/three-reasons-to-put-the-phone-down-instead-of-calling-your-property-manager-and-one-great-tip/">Three reasons to put the phone down instead of calling your property manager</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/05/bugs-in-your-buildings/">Bugs in your Buildings?</a> (Protecting your Real Estate Investment if you Self-Manage)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/07/how-to-cut-vacancies-by-half/">How to Cut Vacancies by 50%</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/10/property-mangement-rocks/">Property Mangement Rocks!</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Joint Venture Partners<a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/08/five-ways-to-flush-50k/"></a></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/08/five-ways-to-flush-50k/">Five Ways to Flush $50k</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/07/six-reasons-no-one-wants-your-real-estate-investment/">Six Reasons No One Wants to Buy Your F-ing Real Estate Investment</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Business, Stats and Misc</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/12/20-years-of-detailed-edmonton-real-estate-prices/">20 Years of Detailed Edmonton Real Estate Prices</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/11/economic-statistics-what-do-you-want-to-see/">Economic  – What Stats Do You Want to See?</a> and <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/11/economic-indicators-your-responses/">everyone&#8217;s responses</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/03/mike-rowe-on-hard-work-and-dirty-jobs/">Mike Rowe on Hard Work and Dirty Jobs</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/02/8-essential-real-estate-investment-business-processes/">8 Essential Real Estate Investment Business Processes</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/07/more-fun-with-stats-monthly-edmonton-statistics/">More Fun with Stats- Monthly Edmonton Statistics</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/07/edmonton-historical-price-trends-since-1962/">Edmonton Real Estate Prices Since 1962</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/06/why-real-estate-works-in-a-recession/">Why Real Estate Works in a Recession</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/01/recession-proof-real-estate-business-model/">8 Tips for Recession Proofing Your Real Estate Business Model</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>And some roundup posts:</h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/01/2008-in-review/">2008 in Review</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/01/post-popular-of-2008/">Most Popular Posts of 2008</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Rate of Decline Slows Significantly</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/06/rate-of-decline-slows-significantly/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/06/rate-of-decline-slows-significantly/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:42:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats Can]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=1021</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today&#8217;s edition of the Stats Can Daily showed the largest monthly improvement in the unsmoothed composite index in 30 years. The rate of decline of the leading indicator slowed markedly to 0.1% in May, the smallest of nine consecutive declines. The shift from a 0.9% drop in April to a 0.1% dip in May was the [...]
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090617/dq090617b-eng.htm" target="_blank">Today&#8217;s edition</a> of the <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/index-eng.htm" target="_blank">Stats Can Daily</a> showed the largest monthly improvement in the unsmoothed composite index in 30 years.</p>
<blockquote><p>The rate of decline of the leading indicator slowed markedly to 0.1% in May, the smallest of nine consecutive declines. The shift from a 0.9% drop in April to a 0.1% dip in May was the largest monthly change in the index in either direction since December 1965. The turnaround reflected a 2.6% increase in the unsmoothed index, equalling its largest monthly gain in 30 years.</p>
<p>Eight of the ten unsmoothed components rose in May, led by double–digit increases for housing, the stock market and orders for durable goods.</p></blockquote>
<p>These graphs and stats are both useful for knowing where things are at, as well as for use in <a href="https://www.realestateinvestingincanada.com/product/tabid/59/p-22-joint-venture-secrets.aspx?a=463464" target="_blank">JV</a> <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/08/how-to-present-complicated-numbers/" target="_blank">presentations</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter" style="border: 1px solid black;" src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/statcan-leading-indicators-may2009.gif" alt="Composite Leading Indicator - Smoothed" width="399" height="448" /></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">You can get a table of the <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090617/t090617b1-eng.htm" target="_blank">leading indicators for the last six months here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Daily Statistics from Stats Can</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/05/daily-statistics-from-stats-can/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/05/daily-statistics-from-stats-can/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 17:14:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joint Ventures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RSS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[StatsCan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=948</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Having great statistics is a vital part of what I do, and I&#8217;m sure that it&#8217;s important to all sorts of investors. I need them to help understand the market, creating Joint Venture presentations, blog posts and other presentations I do.  One of my favorite sites is StatsCan (Statistics Canada). I&#8217;ve used the stats from [...]
No related posts.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>Having great statistics is a vital part of what I do, and I&#8217;m sure that it&#8217;s important to all sorts of investors. I need them to help understand the market, creating <a href="https://www.realestateinvestingincanada.com/product/tabid/59/p-22-joint-venture-secrets.aspx?a=463464" target="_blank">Joint Venture</a> <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/08/how-to-present-complicated-numbers/">presentations</a>, <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/category/statistics/">blog posts</a> and other <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/edmontons-black-triangle-presentation/">presentations I do</a>. </p>
<p>One of my favorite sites is StatsCan (Statistics Canada). I&#8217;ve used the stats from <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/" target="_blank">The Daily</a> in the past, like this <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/02/canada-loses-129000-jobs-alberta-loses-200/">post about unemployment numbers</a>. What I (finally) did the other day was add The Daily to my RSS reader. Now it&#8217;s easier than ever, and much more digestable. </p>
<p>You can get the RSS stream here: <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/rss-eng.htm" target="_blank">http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/rss-eng.htm</a></p>
<p>Each day has 3-6 different reports, like today&#8217;s which looked like this:</p>
<blockquote><p>Tuesday, May 12, 2009<br />
Released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time</p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/dq090512a-eng.htm">Canadian international merchandise trade, March 2009<br />
</a>Canada&#8217;s merchandise imports and exports both declined in March, largely due to volume reductions. Imports decreased more than twice as fast as exports.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/dq090512b-eng.htm">Aircraft movement statistics: Small airports, 2008</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/dq090512c-eng.htm">Export and import price indexes, March 2009</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/dq090512d-eng.htm">Chain Fisher real export and import values, March 2009</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/dq090512e-eng.htm">Public Service Employee Survey, 2008</a></p>
<p><strong>Featured product</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/be090512a-eng.htm">Canadian Social Trends, May 2009 online edition</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090512/pn090512-eng.htm">New products</a></p></blockquote>
<div>You can view it as a PDF or as  the HTML page, but RSS is better! Here&#8217;s what it looks like on a daily basis. </div>
<div></div>
<p><img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/stats-can-rss-reader.png" alt="" width="492" height="477" /></p>
<p>So go check it out!</p>
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		<title>Edmonton Stats Updated</title>
		<link>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/edmonton-stats-updated/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2009/04/edmonton-stats-updated/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2009 20:25:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edmonton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Graphs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Values]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chrisdavies.ca/?p=853</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve finally updated my very popular spreadsheet of Edmonton Stats (with over 3,000 views). I should probably re-title it Edmonton Real Estate Values 1962-2009. Now it includes the real 2008 average value from the EREB, adding an 8th year with a negative year-over-year average price decrease. I&#8217;ve also updated the monthly prices with the Q1 [...]
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>I&#8217;ve finally updated my very popular spreadsheet of Edmonton Stats (with over 3,000 views). I should probably re-title it <a href="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/2008/07/edmonton-historical-price-trends-since-1962/">Edmonton Real Estate Values 1962-2009</a>. Now it includes the real 2008 average value from the EREB, adding an 8th year with a negative year-over-year average price decrease.</p>
<p><a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKhf_Qhx1jfrbTbcuR-dHSw"><img src="http://www.chrisdavies.ca/Pictures/Edmonton-Real-Estate-Values.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>I&#8217;ve also updated the monthly prices with the Q1 2009 values, and I&#8217;ve updated the sliding chart as well. (The big version is easier to play with on the <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKhf_Qhx1jfrbTbcuR-dHSw">third tab here</a>).</p>
<p><script src="http://spreadsheets.google.com/gpub?url=http%3A%2F%2Ftbaoebshgeq225lhq2bam0m0a5mf6u0b.spreadsheets.gmodules.com%2Fgadgets%2Fifr%3Fup__table_query_url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fspreadsheets.google.com%252Ftq%253Frange%253DA1%25253AB565%2526gid%253D2%2526key%253DpKhf_Qhx1jfrbTbcuR-dHSw%2526pub%253D1%26up_title%3DEdmonton%2520Monthly%2520Real%2520Estate%2520Prices%2520Since%25201962%26up__table_query_refresh_interval%3D0%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252Fig%252Fmodules%252Ftime-series-line.xml&amp;height=430&amp;width=500"></script></p>
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