I came across an article in the Edmonton Journal the other day about Don and why Edmonton’s a great place to invest in now. (If you want more info, go check out the Top 10 Alberta Towns Report.) 
Photo Credit: Rick MacWilliam, The Edmonton Journal It’s stuff that I’ve been hearing for a while because I’m a REIN member, but it’s interesting to see it in the Journal. The best quotes from the article:
So is Edmonton still the best place to invest in residential real estate? “Absolutely, it is,” he said Monday during a visit to Edmonton from Vancouver. “There’s no way the world can continue to afford $30 and $40 oil. … Eventually, within 18 or 24 months, we’re going to see the market come back to something that’s more normal.”
Last summer, a REIN report ranked Edmonton as the best place to invest in residential real estate, followed by Calgary, Red Deer, St. Albert and Grande Prairie. Devon placed ninth and Sturgeon and Strathcona counties tied at 10th.
“That being said, we were so superhot here that the pendulum moved so quickly and has gone too far the other way. Like all economic pendulums, it comes back towards the norm and we’ll start to see that pendulum start to swing a little bit more for Edmonton’s sake. Right now, if you’re focusing on yields, it’s still the best place.”
6 comments
rj
“I have no doubt in your quote, but you’ve failed to point out when he made those predictions.”
Follow the link I provided, and you’ll see it was Nov 17, 2007.
“I’m sure we can all agree that the changes in the world markets have been remarkably swift, and making long term predictions is very difficult.”
Campbell is more than happy to promote himself and REIN thru the mainstream media by making predictions, so it is eminently fair to criticize him on those predictions. The purpose of my post was to point out that if he was so badly wrong less than a year and a half ago, anything he says now should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.
“If you tell me when he made those predictions, I’ll call him and get some updated ones.”
No doubt he can give you a much better prediction for 2008 now. But seriously, why does he get a do-over?
“What Don has done very well, is helped people make money in real estate.”
He certainly seems to be an effective self-promoter. But he rose to prominence during a time when it was pretty hard not to make money in real estate. I’m unconvinced he’s more Buffett than Blodget.
“Predictions and forecasts aren’t important….what you do with them is.”
I’m not sure what you mean here… how useful is a wrong prediction? Why is action better than inaction? Not buying was a superior course of action to buying over the last 2 years or so.
“That’s why I spend very little time reading bubble-bloggers like AREW or Turner. Fear mongering can provide a lot of traffic, and might ‘protect’ a few people, but no one ever improved by sitting on their butt and complaining.”
I’m not a fan of Garth’s style, but at least he is a bit of counterweight in the mainstream media to the sometimes absurd and largely unchallenged spin from quote mills like Campbell and the real estate association heads. IMO, AREW is far less about “fearmongering” and far more about casting a critical eye on what passes for journalism and financial analysis in Alberta real estate. YMMV.
Chris
Actually, Don’s been doing this since the 80’s, and at least according to the system I use, buying has been the correct decision during the last 2 years in some cases. It depends on the property. You may not have made as much money, but you’d still be making money. The REIN system hasn’t changed significantly since it’s inception, and I say that having worked with many REIN members.
I do agree that the mainstream media is more than a little biased, but I don’t think that most contrarian blogs are doing a better job.
Danielle Millar
Chris,
First of all Thank you for the heads up on the broken link on my blog.
Secondly, your answer to the above comment is absolutely perfect. It’s easy to sit and watch and point out what is wrong over and over again. The blogs you mentioned are examples of fear mongering to the extreme.
Predictions are what they are. You take them with a grain of salt but act on the known of the area ie infrastructure, employment etc..
Great blog!
Danielle
Chris
Thanks Danielle! I think that keeping forward motion is at least as important as identifying possible pitfalls. It’s important to know what the markets are likely to do, but it’s more important to take action on it. That’s a big part of why it doesn’t bug me when Don’s projections (especially his old ones) are off.
rj
“I’m a REIN member, but it’s interesting to hear it from the Journals’ perspective. ”
It isn’t “the Journal’s perspective”, they’re just using a quote mill to write the “story” for them. For fun, let’s see what else Don’s said over the past little while:
“Campbell said he expects Edmonton home prices generally to rise nine per cent in 2008 and 12 per cent in 2009. Homes that benefit from transportation improvements will outperform the market by an additional 10 to 20 per cent,”
https://albertarealestatewatch.blogspot.com/2009/03/don-campbell-from-vault.html
So he’s on record with the Dec 2009 average/median/benchmark/whatever to be fully 22% over the Dec 2007 price. I’m gonna go out on a limb and suggest he’s going to miss and miss big.
Chris
Hi “RJ”,
You’re right, I misspoke when I wrote that sentence. I’ve changed it to ‘see it in the Journal’, which was my intention. I have no doubt in your quote, but you’ve failed to point out when he made those predictions. I’m sure we can all agree that the changes in the world markets have been remarkably swift, and making long term predictions is very difficult. If you tell me when he made those predictions, I’ll call him and get some updated ones. Markets change; fundamentals don’t.
What Don has done very well, is helped people make money in real estate.
Predictions and forecasts aren’t important….what you do with them is. That’s why I spend very little time reading bubble-bloggers like AREW or Turner. Fear mongering can provide a lot of traffic, and might ‘protect’ a few people, but no one ever improved by sitting on their butt and complaining. (Well, unless you’re selling a book like Garth is)